First full trading week of the year will be dominated by NFP and Canadian jobs report that will be published at the same time and will cause increased volatility in the markets, additionally we will have preliminary December inflation data for the EU.
USD
US has launched the air strikes in Iraq which killed Iranian general leading the Quds force Qassem Soleimani. The decision to eliminate Soleimani was made by president Trump. Oil and gold jumped higher on the news and are still going higher. Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei threatened retaliation which can push both oil and gold even higher. This has already turned safe haven flows into USD which is strengthening across the markets.
This week we will have trade balance and Non-Manufacturing PMI data from ISM with NFP on Friday. Expectations are 165k for the headline number, the unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 3.6% while average hourly earnings will stay the same at 0.2% m/m and 3.1% y/y.
Important news for USD:
Tuesday:
Trade Balance
Exports
Imports
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Friday:
Nonfarm Payrolls
Unemployment Rate
Average Hourly Earnings
EUR
Final manufacturing PMI for Eurozone in December came in at 46.3 vs 45.9 preliminary but still down from 46.9 the previous month. The revision up to the preliminary reading was propped by German and French PMIs which were also revised up,
This week we will have final services and composite PMI data for December, consumption data, preliminary December inflation data which is expected to tick higher based on increases in energy prices, consumer and business confidence measures as well as the unemployment rate.
Important news for EUR:
Monday:
Markit Services PMI (EU, Germany, France)
Markit Composite PMI (EU, Germany, France)
Tuesday:
Retail Sales
CPI
Wednesday:
Consumer Confidence Index
Business Climate Indicator
Thursday:
Unemployment Rate
GBP
UK finance minister Javid stated that the minimum wage will be raised by 6.2% in April of 2020 and it currently sits at £8.21. The five-year plan is to raise the minimum wage to £10.50 which is the increase of about 28%. PM Johnson will meet with the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen on Wednesday at Downing Street to discuss further steps regarding transition period after UK leaves the EU on January 31. Transition period will end at the year’s end and Johnson is adamant on not extending it.
This week we will have final services and composite PMI data for December.
Important news for GBP:
Monday:
Markit Services PMI
Markit Composite PMI
AUD
Official Chinese manufacturing PMI for December came in at 50.2 vs 50.1 as expected but unchanged from the previous month. New export orders index returned to expansion for the first time in 18 months. The output index rose as well while the employment index stayed the same in contraction territory. On the other hand, non-manufacturing PMI came in short at 53.5 vs 54.2 as expected and down from 54.4 the previous month. Composite reading was dragged down by weaker than expected services reading to 53.4 vs 53.7 the previous month. Caixin manufacturing PMI came in at 51.5 vs 51.8 the previous month. The report shows that growth in domestic demand is showing more rapid slowdown. Employment subindex ticked down while there was an improvement in business confidence making this a mixed report.
This week we will have Caixin services PMI and inflation data from China as well as trade balance and consumption data from Australia.
Important news for AUD:
Monday:
Caixin Services PMI (China)
Thursday:
CPI (China)
Trade Balance
Exports
Imports
Friday:
Retail Sales
NZD
Kiwi has been falling since New Year due to risk off sentiment in the markets caused by tensions in the Middle East.
This week we will have first GDT auction of the year.
Important news for NZD:
Tuesday:
GDT Price Index
CAD
CAD has been strengthening since the start of the year due to the rising oil prices caused by tensions in the Middle East.
This week we will have trade balance data and speech from governor Poloz followed by the employment report on Friday.
Important news for CAD:
Tuesday:
Trade Balance
Exports
Imports
Thursday:
BOC Governor Poloz Speech
Friday:
Employment Change
Unemployment Rate
JPY
Japanese markets were closed after the New Year. JPY has been strengthening on the back of its safe haven appeal as well as seasonal patterns since January is the second strongest month for the yen.
This week we will have final PMI data for December as well as data on earnings and spending.
Important news for JPY:
Monday:
Markit Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday:
Markit Services PMI
Markit Composite PMI
Wednesday:
Labour Cash Earnings
Friday:
Household Spending
CHF
This week we will have inflation, consumption and employment data.
Important news for CHF:
Tuesday:
CPI
Thursday:
Retail Sales
Friday:
Unemployment Rate
You can follow all economic events on the Economic Calendar page on our Website. MT4 server time is set to GMT+3 and if you need assistance converting MT4 server time to your local time you can use some of the online time converters such as WorldTimeBuddy.
Please note that this analysis should not be used as investing advice as it is only an overview of the economic events influencing the markets.Please remember that MT4.VAR. and MT4.ECN. accounts have Market Execution. Please note how Execution works during high impact news and other times of low liquidity.
