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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Feb 14, 2017)

USD 

The US dollar had a mixed performance as it consolidated to the yen but advanced to the euro.

There were no major reports out of the US economy yesterday but investors seemed to gain some assurance after Trump’s meeting with Trudeau. Traders continue to wait on Trump’s tax reform plans and Fed head Yellen’s upcoming speech could steal the spotlight, putting the focus back on Fed policy biases. 

EUR

The euro was mostly weaker across the board after IMF head Lagarde noted that they won’t be cutting special deals for Greece. The euro zone nation is trying to secure the next tranche of bailout funds but this hinges on whether or not the IMF judges that they have made progress in terms of economic and fiscal reform. Preliminary GDP readings from top euro zone nations are due today, along with the German ZEW economic sentiment figure. Strong readings could provide some support for the shared currency. 

GBP

The pound held on to most of its recent gains as traders seem to be pricing in positive outcomes for this week’s set of data. UK CPI is due today and the headline reading is slated to rise from 1.6% to 1.9%, underscoring BOE official Forbes’ view that a rate hike might be needed soon. Core CPI is expected to advance from 1.6% to 1.7%. 

CHF

The franc was in a weak spot against its peers, except against the euro. Over the weekend, Switzerland rejected the tax reform plan that could’ve wound up costing the economy companies and jobs. Swiss PPI and CPI are due today, with the former expected to show a 0.3% increase and the latter likely to print a 0.1% drop. 

JPY

The yen gave up ground against the comdolls but advanced against the euro. Over the weekend, Japan’s preliminary GDP reading missed expectations with a 0.2% uptick versus the projected 0.3% expansion. The revised industrial production report is due today but no changes to the 0.5% reading are eyed. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls held on to most of their recent gains, thanks to upbeat data from China. Headline CPI climbed from 2.1% to 2.5% versus the 2.4% consensus while the PPI jumped from 5.5% to 6.9% versus the 6.6% consensus. New Zealand’s food price index rebounded by 2.8% while Australia’s NAB business confidence index climbed from 6 to 10. Canadian PM Trudeau sounded positive about trade relations after his meeting with Trump, as both countries agreed to strengthen energy cooperation. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way