USD

Liquidity is expected to pick up today as more traders return to their trading desks. Over the weekend, Harvard economist Larry Summers spoke of the need to have fiscal stimulus for the US economy.

He pointed out that this could spur full employment through higher investments instead of implementing more monetary stimulus, which might end up with asset price bubbles. Data from the US today is the ISM manufacturing PMI, which is expected to climb from 53.9 to 54.6.

EUR

Talks of deflation in the euro zone are starting to weigh on the euro for now, although there are no major reports due from the region in the next few hours. Most economies in the region are still on holiday after all. German preliminary CPI was actually better than expected at 0.4% versus the estimate of a 0.2% increase. Later on, Spanish and Italian services PMI are up for release and small improvements are expected.

GBP

The pound was unable to sustain its rallies past the 1.6500 handle as it eventually retreated below 1.6400 to the dollar. UK services PMI is up for release today and an increase from 60.0 to 60.4 is expected, which might allow the selloff to take a pause. Bear in mind that services accounts for a huge component of overall economic growth in the UK economy so this report could trigger a strong reaction.

JPY

Over the weekend, a Nikkei survey showed that 70% of Japanese major retailers expected sales to drop once the sales tax increase is implemented. Recall that the government approved a sales tax hike from 5% to 8% in April, which could dampen overall demand. However, companies also expect sales to pick up in the months leading up to the tax increase and for the drag on demand to taper in September this year.

CHF There have been no reports released from Switzerland lately as Swiss banks are on holiday. This has led to a franc selloff, particularly against the US dollar lately. There are still no major reports due from Switzerland today, which suggests further franc weakness, especially if US data comes in strong.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

Australia’s AIG services index posted a decline in activity over the weekend, reflecting a deeper contraction in the industry. This might weigh on the Australian dollar for the rest of the trading day, as there are no other major reports due from the country for the next few hours. Meanwhile, Canada is set to print a couple of inflation indicators, both of which are not expected to have a major impact on Loonie movement.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way