USD
The dollar is still being bogged down by issues surrounding the Trump administration, from the failure to pass the Obamacare repeal in Senate to the ongoing investigation into Trump’s dealings with Russia.
Lead investigator Mueller said that they will be looking into the President’s business transactions with Russians in the past. Data from the US was mostly stronger than expected as initial jobless claims and the CB leading index beat forecasts, but the Philly Fed index chalked up a steeper fall from 27.6 to 19.5. There are no reports due from the US economy today.
EUR
The euro started edging lower ahead of the ECB decision as traders reduced their exposure to the event but the shared currency regained ground even after Governor Draghi dropped dovish remarks. The ECB Governor acknowledged that growth is picking up but that this has yet to translate to stronger inflation, which he also mentioned isn’t quite up to the level for them to start discussing tapering. There are no reports due from the euro zone today, so traders could keep pricing in their reaction that it’s only a matter of time before the ECB reduces asset purchases.
GBP
The pound was still in a weak spot even though the UK reported stronger than expected retail sales for June. Consumer spending rebounded by 0.6% while the previous figure enjoyed a small upgrade from an initially reported 1.2% slump to just 1.1%. Only the UK public sector net borrowing report is due today but the focus could remain on how shaky the economy is looking with Brexit discussions ongoing.
CHF
The franc gave up ground to most of its peers as traders flocked back to the euro instead. Also, Swiss trade balance turned out weaker than expected with a surplus of 2.81 billion CHF versus the projected 2.89 billion CHF figure and the earlier 3.39 billion CHF reading. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.
JPY
The yen got back on its feet against some of its peers as the BOJ refrained from dropping more dovish remarks in their statement. The central bank did scale back its CPI forecast but this barely drew bears back in. There are no reports due from the Japanese economy today so risk sentiment and reactions to USD movements could stay in play.
Commodity Currencies Outlook (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls had a mixed round as they returned some of their gains to the euro and yen while advancing to other counterparts. Australia’s jobs report was slightly weaker than expected with a 14K gain in June and a downgrade in the May figure. Canada has its CPI and retail sales figures up for release next and strong readings could reinforce BOC hike expectations. RBA policymakers Debelle and Bullock are set to give speeches as well.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
