USD

There are a lot of red flags on the U.S. calendar this week, which could determine if markets are really shifting their stance on the U.S. dollar or just making huge corrections before trends resume. 

Take note though that it’s already the start of summer season in the United States, which means that liquidity could be dried up. This could make room for more range plays than actual trends. For today, the ISM manufacturing PMI is set for release and a small downtick from 50.7 to 50.6 is expected.

EUR

EUR/USD is currently trading above the 1.3000 major psychological level, as the dollar rallies were capped last week. However, fundamentals in the euro zone remain very weak and this could be highlighted in this week’s ECB interest rate statement. Traders could start pricing in expectations of negative deposit rates as early as today, with only medium-tier reports due from the euro zone.

GBP

The pound is showing resilience against the U.S. dollar, as GBP/USD made a bounce off the neckline of the double bottom on its 1-hour chart. The manufacturing PMI is set for release from the U.K. today and an improvement from 49.8 to 50.3 is eyed, which would mean that the industry is expanding once more. A stronger than expected figure could push GBP/USD to new highs.

JPY

The Japanese yen has been rallying against its counterparts last week as Japanese equities have been falling. There are no major reports due from Japan this week, as the yen could take its cue from risk sentiment and Japanese stock markets or bond yields.

CHF

The Swiss franc has been gaining against the Greenback, after breaking below the .9600 handle last week. Swiss SVME PMI is due today and this could print a jump from 50.2 to 50.9, which would lend more support for the Swiss franc. However, traders might be cautious about buying the currency more as the SNB has previously reiterated its pledge to keep the franc undervalued.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The commodity currencies suffered a bloodbath last Friday, as RBNZ officials expressed their intention to intervene again. The last time this happened, the central bank actually staged a secret intervention before admitting to it months later. As for the Australian dollar, Chinese official manufacturing PMI figures stayed above 50.0 but the HSBC final reading came in at 49.2. Australian retail sales were also weaker than expected at 0.2%. No reports are due from Canada today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way