USD

The US dollar is treading carefully ahead of today’s NFP release. Analysts are expecting to see a 188K gain, lower than the earlier 227K increase, but leading indicators such as the ADP non-farm employment change are hinting at an upside surprise.

Average hourly earnings could show a 0.3% gain, higher than the previous 0.1% uptick. Revisions to earlier data could also have a large impact on dollar action.

EUR

The euro staged a strong rally during the ECB statemet, as the central bank kept rates unchanged as expected but upgraded growth and inflation forecasts. During the presser, Governor Draghi said that there was no more urgency to ease as deflation risks are lower, signaling a shift to a less dovish bias. He also said that he isn’t nervous about upcoming elections in Germany and France. French industrial production and Italian quarterly unemployment rate is due today.

GBP

The pound was able to trail the euro and cash in a few gains of its own as sentiment improved in the European region. There were no major reports out of the UK yesterday while today has the manufacturing and industrial production numbers due. Both are expected to post declines so a bit of pound weakness could be seen.

CHF

The franc was able to breathe a sigh of relief as the ECB didn’t sound too dovish this time. This eases the pressure on the SNB to intervene in the currency markets to keep the franc weak against the euro. Swiss jobless rate was unchanged at 3.3% as expected. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today so the franc could move to the tune of risk sentiment.

JPY

The yen continued to slide against its peers as traders are moving their funds back to the US dollar. Japan’s BSI manufacturing index was weaker than expected at 1.1 versus the projected improvement from 7.5 to 8.4. There are no reports due from Japan today but the yen could be sensitive to dollar action after the NFP release.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were still the weakest performers for the day as risk aversion stayed in play. Chinese CPI was weaker than expected at 0.8% versus the projected 1.9% figure. PPI was better than expected at 7.8% versus 7.6% signaling strong inflationary pressures later on. Canadian jobs data is also due today, with the headline reading expected to show a 4.8K decline in hiring. The unemployment rate is expected to stay unchanged at 4.8%.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way