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Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Sep 07, 2016)

USD

The US dollar resumed its slump when the ISM non-manufacturing report turned out weaker than expected. 

The index fell from 55.5 to 51.4 to show a slower pace of industry growth, lower than the estimated 55.4 reading. Also, the Fed’s labor market conditions index landed back in negative territory with a -0.7 figure versus the previous 1.1 reading For today, FOMC member Geroge has a testimony lined up ahead of the release of the JOLTS job openings. 

EUR

The euro took advantage of dollar weakness but was mostly weaker against its other counterparts. Medium-tier euro zone data came in line with expectations but it could be possible that traders are bracing for a potentially downbeat ECB statement later on this week. German industrial production and French trade balance numbers are due today. 

GBP 

The pound was able to go for more gains, except against the Japanese yen, despite the lack of top-tier UK data. Today has the manufacturing production report due and a 0.4% decline is eyed. Also lined up today is the BOE Inflation Report hearings, which could contain clues on the central bank’s policy bias.  

CHF

The franc was able to regain a bit of ground against the euro and pound while raking in more wins against the US dollar. SNB head Jordan refrained from currency jawboning as his speech mostly focused on education reform. Swiss foreign currency reserves data are due today and any sharp increase could still be indicative of currency intervention. 

JPY

The yen was able to recover against its peers even though there were no major releases from Japan. According to a Sankei report, the odds of additional BOJ easing are slim since policymakers are still unable to establish a consensus position ahead of the actual policy statement later this month. Japan’s leading indicators report is due today and a decline from 98.2% to 98.6% is expected. 

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Aussie was able to hold on to its gains after a brief dip following the weaker than expected Q2 GDP. The report showed a 0.5% expansion versus the projected 0.6% rise and the previous reading was downgraded from 1.1% to 1.0%. New Zealand reported a 7.7% rise in its GDT dairy index and a 2.2% rebound in manufacturing sales for Q2. The BOC statement is due next, along with Canada’s Ivey PMI. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way