NZDUSD has been gaining ground recently but could be due to resume its drop as it approaches the channel resistance.

Price has been trading inside a shallow descending channel with the top around the .6930 level.

If this keeps gains in check, the pair could head back down to support at the .6800 major psychological mark. The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA on the 1-hour time frame, signaling that the path of least resistance is to the downside. However, stochastic is turning up from the overbought zone to suggest that buyers are trying to regain the upper hand.

Over the weekend, New Zealand printed stronger than expected quarterly retail sales figures. This allowed the Kiwi to recover after bulls were disappointed by the less hawkish than expected RBNZ statement last week. Up ahead, PPI data and the Global Dairy Trade auction could lead to more volatility. Analysts are expecting to see gains in producer prices, which would likely translate to higher consumer inflation down the line.

As for the US, traders are starting to doubt that the Fed can hike rates in June after the Empire State manufacturing index slid from 5.2 to -1.0 instead of improving to 7.2. Underlying data showed declines in new orders and shipments. Building permits and housing starts, along with industrial production and capacity utilization, are lined up from the US today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way