NZD/USD has been trending higher on its 1-hour time frame, thanks to rate hike speculations confirmed by the recent RBNZ meeting. 

The pair is currently stalling close to the .8100 handle, which might be a good entry point for a long trade if the retail sales report comes in weak.

With two months’ worth of weak jobs data, consumer spending could slow down in the U.S. and fall short of expectations. If that happens, the Fed Septaper might not push through and trigger a sharp dollar selloff. NZD/USD might bounce to new highs if that happens.

On the other hand, a strong US retail sales release would confirm the Septaper for next week and provide support for the US dollar. NZD/USD could break below the .8100 mark and possibly go as low as .8000.

With that, a straddle play might be a good option for this pair if it continues to consolidate prior to the US retail sales release.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way