USDCAD has formed lower highs and lower lows recently, creating a falling wedge chart pattern visible on the 4-hour chart. 

Price is currently testing the wedge resistance and may be due for a move back to support. If a breakout happens, the pair could move by around 500 pips, which is the same height as the chart formation. 

The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the downside. In addition, the gap between the moving averages is getting wider, which means that bearish pressure is strengthening. The 200 SMA is close to the wedge resistance, adding an extra layer of defense in case price pops higher. 

Stochastic is already in the overbought zone, which means that buyers might want to book profits off their recent positions. Once the oscillator turns lower, USDCAD could follow suit as sellers regain control. 

Economic data from Canada was mostly weaker than expected in the latest US session, as the trade surplus narrowed while building permits showed a steeper 6.6% fall compared to the estimated 3.5% drop. The Ivey PMI also posted sharper fall from 60.8 to 57.2 versus the estimated 58.3 figure. 

In the US, data came in mostly in line with expectations. The trade deficit narrowed as both imports and exports picked up while the JOLTS job openings figure was mostly unchanged in December. An index for economic optimism improved, signaling stronger consumer confidence for the next six months.

In crude oil news, the US EIA lowered demand forecasts for next year while upping production estimates, possibly yielding another wave lower in prices. For this year, they kept demand forecasts unchanged while trimming production estimates. 

By Kate Curtis from  Trader’s Way