USDCAD recently broke through the floor around the 1.2650 minor psychological mark then fell to a low of 1.2362.

Applying the Fib tool on its latest swing high and low shows that the 50% to 61.8% levels are close to the broken support, which might now hold as resistance. The 100 SMA is also around this area and is below the longer-term 200 SMA to signal that the path of least resistance is to the downside. 

Stochastic is already turning lower to indicate a pickup in selling pressure. This suggests that the current barrier around the 38.2% Fib might be enough to keep gains in check and push the pair back to the swing low or lower. 

US PPI turned out weaker than expected and weighed heavily on the dollar as this spurred downbeat expectations for CPI. Recall that policymakers have been stressing the weaker inflation outlook as a potential reason to slow their pace of tightening. 

US retail sales are also due later today and the headline figure could show a 0.5% uptick. The core version of the report is expected to show a 0.3% gain but there could be a chance for an upside surprise as holiday sales have been strong.

Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar drew some support from rising crude oil prices on the heels of lower US stockpiles and production. Upbeat data from China has also supported demand expectations, which is also positive for the commodity and risk-taking.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way