USDJPY has been trending lower on its 1-hour time frame, moving inside a descending channel since the start of the year. 

Price is now testing the channel resistance and might be due for a drop back to support at 111.00. 

The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA on this time frame so the path of least resistance is to the downside. However, the gap between the moving averages is narrowing so an upward crossover might be due, possibly drawing more buyers to the mix.  

In that case, USDJPY could break past the channel resistance at the 113.70 area and start a reversal. However, stochastic is indicating overbought conditions and might turn lower, allowing the downtrend to resume.  

The US dollar has rallied across the board when US President Trump shared that he is about to announce something “phenomenal” on taxes in the next two or three weeks. This could cover more details on his tax reform plan, which is expected to cut corporate taxes to 15-20% and lessen the tax burden on middle-class Americans.

US equity indices closed at record highs on upbeat expectations, including potential reforms in the aviation industry. Trump recently had a meeting with CEOs of US carriers who hinted that they are ready to bring more job opportunities back to the US. Trump is also meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Abe today and traders are speculating that currency manipulation might be discussed.

With that, yen bulls closed their recent positions as traders also reestablished their dollar longs. Japanese data has been upbeat and the BOJ has issued a brighter economic outlook but market sentiment and politics could play a greater role in price action from here. 

By Kate Curtis from  Trader’s Way