USDJPY has been trending higher recently, moving inside an ascending channel on its 1-hour time frame.

Price just bounced off the resistance and could be due for a test of support near the 112.50 minor psychological level from here. 

The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the upside. The 100 SMA is also close to the bottom of the channel, adding to its strength as a floor. Stochastic is heading down to signal that sellers may be in control but the oscillator is nearing oversold levels. 

US banks have been closed for the Fourth of July holiday so liquidity has been lower than usual. Tankan data from Japan has shown some improvements but it looks like the Asian currency is reeling from the recent North Korean nuclear missile test launch. 

Looking ahead, US factory orders data is up for release today and analysts are expecting to see a 0.4% drop. The FOMC minutes are also due and this should provide more clues on when the Fed might hike rates or start unwinding its balance sheet.

Only the average cash earnings and leading indicators data are due from Japan for the rest of the week, but the yen could be more sensitive to risk flows and global bond prices. With that, the US NFP report could also prove to be a big catalyst before the week comes to a close. 

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way